Al-Qaida’s Role in the Global Geopolitical Dynamics

Ajmal Sohail

Abstract: This paper is consisting of three main parts, in the first fragment focuses on Ayman al-
Zawahiri’s personal life, education, how he turned from a doctor to a terrorist. When he joined the
Al-Qaeda group, in which countries he did terrorist activities, his direct and indirect relations with
other radical Islamist armed militias, and his entry into Afghanistan and his relations with the first
leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar Mujahid. In the second part, there is a full argument about his
murder and the background of his death. In the third part, the next leader of the Al-Qaeda and the
future of the group are deliberated.

Introduction: Ayman Al-Zawahiri was born to be a decent Egyptian, decidedly educated, while having
extreme perception of religion; therefore, he joined the Muslim Brotherhood at a very young age,
where he entered the process of radicalization ‘’ Introduction, Acceptance, Indoctrination and
strategy to employ tactics’’ in order to materialize his objectives. He actively participated at score of
intellectual religiously driven symposia to enhance his knowledge and understanding of the jihadi
doctrine to be applied into practice, thus he joined the Egyptian Islamic Jihad group in 1973 to oust
the pro-secular Egyptian Government having it turned to Sharia led Land.

In the aftermath of Anwar Sadat’s assassination, Zawahiri was sentenced for three years; upon his
release, he took refuge in Pakistan, while joining the efforts to provide treatment to the wounded
Afghan and International Jihadists came under fire by the Soviet soldiers. His so-called humble
sacrifice made it possible to be introduced to Osama Bin Laden the founder of Al-Qaeda, which was a
huge opportunity to join jihad against soviets.

After decades of waging Jihad Zawahiri was killed by the US CIA unman aircraft strike on July 31,
which caused countless assumptions, whether he was too weak and lack of pragmatism was the main
factors of his, relieve form Al-Qaeda leadership or there were some geo-political objectives behind
his killing, which have yet to be proved. Nevertheless, Al-Zawahiri’s killing generated challenges to
select a new Emir/leader, who could comply with modern day’s dynamic demands and obstacle
before Al-Qaeda.

A number of prerequisites formulated to be applicable for the new leader; it is however unclear
whether the dynasty or long-standing jihad and activism sound relevant. Obviously, when family
relationship matters either Osama’s sons or Zawahiri’s son-in-law comes in question, if enduring
activism matters then Saif Al-Adel could be one of the candidates.

Unquestionably, there are also young candidates including Yazid Mubarak, also Known as Abu Ubaida
Yusuf Al-Annabi and Ahmad Omar the Al-Shabaab Somalia, who have both experience, knowledge
and were known to the Al-Qaeda leaders counting Osama Bin Laden.

Despite endeavors by the high Command of Al-Qaeda to keep track of its Emirs, uncertainty among
the group’s members grows, whether Al-Qaeda can keep at least the group title as a prominent and
viable Jihadi organization and resilience to wage Global Jihad in general and jihad against the west in
particular.

Raising funds is a significant part, since Osama was the prime financer of the group and has had very
good relations with some the radical Multi-millionaire Sheikhs of the Arab World, who sponsored the
group’s activities across the globe. Over all, without finding a proper way to deal with challenges,
which AL Qaeda faces, the group will meet internal strife, losing moral, material and technical
support of its members as well as its sponsors. At that juncture, it is more feasible other franchises
and sub-groups of Al-Qaeda abandon the organization, while announcing independence to fill the
gap triggered by Al-Qaeda’s leadership.

Ayman al-Zawahiri’s cognition and role within the Al-Qaeda (1)

Ayman Muhammad Rabi al-Zawahiri was born on June 19, 1951 in a famous family in Cairo, Egypt. He
belonged to a family that was particularly famous in Islamic and modern education in Cairo, Egypt.
Ayman al-Zawahiri’s grandfather was the imam of Al-Azhar University, Egypt, and his father,
Muhammad Rabi al-Zawahiri, became a surgeon after completing his studies in modern education.
Ayman al-Zawahiri received his first education in the Islamic section of Cairo from his grandfather in
an Islamic seminary.

After graduating from school, Ayman al-Zawahiri entered Cairo University in Giza, Egypt, and after
graduating from Cairo University in the field of medicine, he became an ophthalmologist. Even in his
childhood, he was a radical thinker and a radical person, and during his studies, he had intellectual
coordination with the radical groups of Egypt, And according to Aubrey Emelman’s book The Brain of
Osama, (Ayman al-Zawahiri joined the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood at the age of fifteen).
Therefore, when he started working as an ophthalmologist doctor after graduating from the
university, he spent a portion of his earned money on funding extremist groups in Egypt. After his
activities in the Muslim Brotherhood, he joined an intellectual jihadist group at the end of 1970, and
as a result, he joined the Egyptian Islamic Jihad group in 1973, and the goal of this group was to
overthrow the government of Egypt. Finally, Ayman al-Zawahiri was elected the head of the Islamic
Jihad group in Egypt and thereupon he turned from an ophthalmologist to a terror activist.

(2) According to the Memri archive’s report, (when Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri turned from his profession
as a doctor to jihadist struggle in order to overthrow the Egyptian government, he became famous
among his friends with the nickname Dr. Abd al-Mo’ez). Ayman al-Zawahiri’s extensive participation
and clever activities in the Islamic Jihad group have not only attracted the attention of the Egyptian
government, Rather, the fear of most of the countries of the Middle East has increased because
Zawahiri is known as a good preacher in Jihadi propaganda besides being intellectually clever.

Al-Zawahiri was imprisoned for three years after the assassination of the then president of Egypt,
Anwar Sadat, in 1981. After being released from prison in 1984, he went to Pakistan from Egypt with
the help of the Red Cross Organization in 1985, and at the Mujahedeen House in Karachi, Pakistan,
he treated the Mujahedeen (fighters) who fought against the former Soviet Union and the Afghan
government in Afghanistan. In Pakistan, Ayman al-Zawahiri was introduced to another Arab person,
and that person was Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, who decided to join the Afghan
Mujahedeen in Pakistan after 1979 to wage jihad against the then Afghan government and the Soviet
Union in Afghanistan.

In 1987, Ayman al-Zawahiri entered Afghanistan together with Osama along with the Pakistani, Arab
and Afghan Mujahedeen and started practical work to create a new band, and in 1988, he united the
Islamic Jihad group of Egypt and Osama’s Arab Mujahedeen and published the intellectual motivation
of Jihad in the name of Al-Qaeda. In 1988, Osama founded al-Qaeda under his leadership, and Ayman
al-Zawahiri was considered the strongest jihadist and intellectual preacher of this group. In the first
step of their partnership, Bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri attacked the United States embassies in Tanzania
and Kenya in 1998, As a result of those attacks, 224 people were killed and between 4000 and 4500
people were superficially and deeply injured. In 1995, Ayman al-Zawahiri planned an attack on the
Egyptian embassy in Pakistan, and Ayman al-Zawahiri used fighters from the Egyptian Islamic Jihad
group in this attack, because of this attack, 17 people were killed and around 60 people were injured.
In the month of October 2000, Al-Qaeda suicide bombers blew themselves up on a boat in SS Kol,
Yemen, killing 17 American marines and injuring 39 people, and the war plan of that event was also
controlled under the leadership of Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Nevertheless, Ayman al-Zawahiri’s biggest terrorist contribution with the Al-Qaeda group was the
attack on the Pentagon and the two international trade centers of the United States on September
11, 2001, And Osama Bin Laden, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, Dr. Amin-ul-Haq and Saif Al-Adl were the
planners of that attack. In these attacks, 2977 people were killed and around 25000 people were
injured, and after that attack, the US government announced a reward of 25 million US dollars for
the arrest or killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri.

(3) After the bloody attack of September 11, Osama and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri took refuge in
the Tora Boor area of ​​Nangarhar, Afghanistan and the then American President Bush ordered an
attack on Afghanistan if Osama was not handed over to the United States. Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama
Bin Laden, Dr. Amin-ul-Haqq, Abu Ahmad Al-Kuwaiti and 17 Arabs fighters went to Pakistan after the
American attack on Afghanistan. On May 2, 2011, when Osama, the leader of al-Qaeda, was killed
including Abu Ahmad Al-Kuwaitii by the US Special Forces in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Ayman al-
Zawahiri became the leader of al-Qaeda. When Ayman al-Zawahiri became the leader of al-Qaeda in
2011, so, in Waziristan, Pakistan, with the financial help of the Gulf countries, jihadist propaganda
and military training centers were opened for the Afghan Taliban, hospitals in Quetta, Karachi and
Waziristan for the wounded of the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban.

He also provided financial support to the Lashkar-e-Taiba group and provided weapons to the Jaish-
e-Mohammed group for the Kashmir war, In Waziristan, he gave thousands of dollars every month to
the Haqqani network, especially to the leader of this network, Jalaluddin Haqqani. In Kashmir, he
strongly supported Ansar Ghazwat Al-Hind, a branch of Al-Qaeda, in Syria, he provided financial
support to Tahrir al-Sham, and in Iraq, he strongly supported Da’esh until 2014.

(4) In Pakistan, he supported the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen group, he established relations with the IMU
group and ETIM in the north of Afghanistan and established centers for these groups in Syria and he
transferred them from Afghanistan’s Badakhshan and Afghanistan’s northern neighboring countries
to Syria. And Ayman al-Zawahiri also maintained relations with the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine
and Egypt. In short, Ayman al-Zawahiri supported dozens of groups under the umbrella of Al-Qaeda
in South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, and he also activated new
organizations under the umbrella of Al-Qaeda such as Tahrir al-Sham and Maghaweer al-Thura in
Syria. In the latter, he planned to establish a unity council of all Islamic armed groups around the
world in Afghanistan or in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

However, before reaching this plan, on July 31, 2022, he was killed in an airstrike by American forces
at the guesthouse of the head of the Haqqani network in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Ayman al-
Zawahiri, the second leader of al-Qaeda, returned to Afghanistan when the Taliban took control of
Afghanistan for the second time on August 15, 2021. After the Taliban came to power for the second
time in Afghanistan, another important person of the Al-Qaeda group, Dr. Aminul Haqq, openly
entered Nangarhar province, And in Khost province, Osama’s son Abdullah and Al-Qaeda leader
Ayman al-Zawahiri also met with the leaders of the Taliban. Ayman al-Zawahiri, after meeting with
the current leader of the Taliban, Sheikh Haibatullah, at the former house of Mullah Omar in
Kandahar province, established extensive training centers for Al-Qaeda in Nangarhar, Khost, Paktia
and Paktika in Afghanistan. In addition, the leadership of those centers was handed over to Osama’s
son, after meeting Osama’s son Abdullah with Sirajuddin Haqqani and Maulvi Yakub. After August 15,2021, Ayman al-Zawahiri met with the current leader of the Taliban several times and spent most of
his time under the strict security of the Haqqani network in the border areas of Zazie Aryoub district
in Paktia province. He left Afghanistan for Pakistan again in May 2022, but in July, he entered
Afghanistan with a joint delegation of Pakistani scholars, a delegation that came to Afghanistan for
peace talks between the Pakistan Army and TTP through the mediation of the Afghan Taliban.

The Hellfire smashed Al-Zawahiri
(5) On Sunday, July 31, at 6:15 in the morning, the 71-year-old leader of the Al-Qaeda group was
killed in an airstrike by the American forces at the private guesthouse of the Taliban’s interior
minister in the Sherpur area of ​​Kabul. After his death, no evidence has been presented by the
American forces, and after the investigation at the scene of the incident, the GDI intelligence agency
of the Taliban did not find anybody or anything that indicates that he was killed. On the other hand,
high-ranking officials of the Taliban showed ignorance of his presence in Afghanistan, so I came to a
conclusion about his death based on the information.

First: That Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current leader of al-Qaeda, had become weak in terms of age and
mental strength, and could no longer act as the leader of al-Qaeda properly, That’s why it was
necessary to remove him from the scene and appoint a new leader in his place.
The current situation was more important, because the relations of the current government of the
Taliban with China and Russia have become so close, and it was possible that the government of the
Taliban would have been officially recognized by China and Russia in a short time. But after July 31,
diplomatic relations between the Taliban and the Eastern Alliance became suspicious. On the other
hand, in order to create a political vacuum in the north of Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda needed a talented
and intellectually strong leader. And to break the internal unity of the Taliban and to frighten and
control those Taliban leaders, who has anti-Western policies, Ayman al-Zawahiri’s removal from the
scene at such a sensitive time was like killing two birds with one stone.
Meantime, mistrust arose between the Taliban and Afghanistan’s northern neighbors, Because
Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar assured the Eastern Alliance that Afghanistan will no longer be used as a
center for pro-Western foreign militias, but on July 31, the leader of al-Qaeda was killed in Kabul, the
capital of Afghanistan.

Second: the countries of the region that wanted to establish diplomatic relations with the Taliban
and recognize the government of the Taliban have now backed away from their decision.
Third: If the leader of al-Qaeda was killed in Afghanistan, then the Pakistani army and the high-
ranking security representatives of the Afghan Taliban government coordinated with the American
CIA to kill him. Because a few days prior to the killing of the Al-Qaeda leader, a meeting was held in
Rawalpindi, Pakistan regarding the security situation in Afghanistan, On the other hand, on July 28,
there was a telephone conversation between the US special representative for Afghanistan, Thomas
West, and the former president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai. After the talks, Maulvi Yacoub, Minister
of Defense of the Afghan Taliban, and Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Minister of Interior and the head of
the Haqqani Network, met with former President Hamid Karzai at Karzai’s private guesthouse.
In addition, in the middle of July, the Ministers of Home Affairs and Defense of the Taliban, Maulvi
Yaqoob and Sirajuddin Haqqani, had a joint trip to Paktia province, and during the trip, both of them
went to the area where Ayman al-Zawahiri spent most of his time. That is why the Pakistani army,
American forces and CIA members had planned in Rawalpindi about the arrival of the leader of Al-
Qaeda to Afghanistan and his killing, and the leadership of that plan came from the White House and
the Pentagon. In addition, in Afghanistan, including President Hamid Karzai, Maulvi Yaqoob and
Maulvi Sirajuddin Haqqani also had information about Ayman al-Zawahiri and were aware of the
main game and plan.
If the United States wants to receive the support of Pakistan’s army and ISI network in the region,
then the United States is forced to accept some demands of the army and ISI. Recently, the economic
crisis in Pakistan has increased, at the international level, the Pakistan Army is accused of supporting terrorist groups and turning Pakistan into a nest of terrorists, and the IMF is hindering the process of
giving more loans to Pakistan.

That is why the Pakistani army has put Afghanistan in front of all the accusations that have been
leveled against the Pakistani government and army for years. In 2011, Osama, the first leader of al-
Qaeda, was killed in Abbottabad, near the capital of Pakistan, and the world accused Pakistan of
harboring terrorists and harboring the perpetrators of the September incident. Nevertheless, almost
11 years later, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second leader of al-Qaeda, was killed in Kabul, the capital of
Afghanistan, and this time Pakistan blamed Afghanistan and made Afghanistan a den of terrorists.
Therefore, after July 31, the American government gave one billion dollars in cash to Pakistan, and
the IMF also announced a loan to Pakistan.

And at the same time, not only in Afghanistan, the relationship between the Taliban and neighboring
countries has deteriorated and is under suspicion, Rather, internal mistrust among the Taliban
increased, especially between the Haqqani network and the political Taliban leaders and sheikhs in
the southwest zone. Because the Taliban leaders of the southwest zone believe that the Haqqani
network, in cooperation with the Pakistani army, collaborated with the CIA to kill the leader of al-
Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, And Sirajuddin Haqqani received a reward of 25 million dollars and a
property worth 2 million dollars in Pakistan in exchange for showing the location of al-Zawahiri.
Currently, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is trying to get real information about July 31 and reveal the
secret plans of CIA and ISI to the northern neighbors of Afghanistan about killing the leader of al-
Qaeda.

(6) Al-Qaeda’s leadership matters for the group’s resilience

The most important thing is, in an article published by the International Center of Counter-Terrorism
on July 15, 16 days before the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul on July 31, there
was a reference to the change of the leader of the al-Qaeda group ant to the new successor of al-
Zawahiri. Moreover, sixteen days later, on July 31, the leader of Al-Qaeda was killed in an airstrike in
the capital, Kabul. It is clearly stated in the article that Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second leader of al-
Qaeda, is alive but in poor health due to his age, and his enough remaining life threatens the survival
of al-Qaeda, and the appointment of a new leader is a matter of urgency.
In the article, the names of several people were mentioned who may choose the successor of Al-
Zawahiri in the future. In addition, this election will be based on one of two factors, such as having a
family relationship with the former leader or choosing a new leader based on staying with the former
leader for a long time. Secondly, the appointment of a new leader based on a long-term successful
record and an influential person among the Al-Qaeda group.

(7) Many media and intelligence organizations first mentioned the name of Saif al-Adl, who was an
experienced Egyptian commander and a long-time member of al-Qaeda; He was once assigned to
work with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Looking at Al-Adl’s extensive experience as a military operative in
the Al-Qaeda network and his role in military operational planning, Al-Adl may be the new leader of
Al-Qaeda and Al-Zawahiri’s successor after Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The second person whose name was mentioned by the International Center for Counter of Terrorism
and some Intelligence Agencies as the successor of Ayman al-Zawahiri sixteen days before Ayman Al-
Zawahiri’s death was Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s son-in-law Abd al-Haman al-Maghrebi. Abdul Rahman al-
Maghrebi is the son-in-law of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second leader of al-Qaeda, and the head of the
media committee of al-Qaeda network, and he has been by al-Zawahiri’s side for a long time. These
family connections, as well as Al-Maghrebi’s extensive and successful experience in running al-
Qaeda’s international media, may give him a “rich right” to assume a leadership role.

Moreover, in the third category there are two names such as Abu Ikhlas al-Masri, the commander of
the Egyptian operation, or Amin Muhammad al-Haq Sam Khan, the former security coordinator of
Osama bin Laden.

Al-Zawahiri was too old and weak to lead Al-Qaeda

(8) But in my opinion, if the reason for Al-Qaeda’s former leader Al-Zawahiri’s removal from the
scene is his age, poor health and intellectual weakness, Therefore, it is possible that the Al-Qaeda
group and the Western countries that created this group will not choose the 62-year-old Saif al-Adl
as the new leader of Al-Qaeda. Because he is currently 62 years old and according to intelligence
information, Al-Adl has been suffering from asthma for the past three years and he is breathing very
hard. So, if the reason for Al-Zawahiri’s death and absence from the scene is his age and illness, Al-
Adl is now 62 years old, He has become weak intellectually and his illness may be lung cancer, and
maybe after two or three years, Saif al-Adl will be even weaker than he is now. And if Saif al-Adl is a
smart and intelligent person, So again, in the course of two or three years, reorganizing the Al-Qaeda
group, finding new financial resources, updating Al-Qaeda’s relations with foreign Islamist groups will
be big challenges for Al-Adl in the course of three years.
Furthermore, if the appointment of Saif al-Adl as the new leader of the Al-Qaeda group is to involve
Iran in the Middle East, then the appointment of Al-Adl as the new leader of this group will be a
significant issue. Because, according to the claim of political and intelligence researchers, Saif al-Adl,
the next potential candidate of al-Qaeda, is in the eastern borders of Iran, and Iran will now enter a
sensitive situation to decide on the issue of al-Adl. According to Middle East security experts and
intelligence information, accusations are being made against Iran that Iran has sheltered a number of
leading commanders and members of the Al-Qaeda group.

At the beginning of last year, Talha Abdul Razzaq, who is an expert on Middle East security issues,
said in a security report that was published regarding the security of the Middle East. In the past
years, Iran has given refuge to many activists of the Al-Qaeda group; the first names in their list are
Saif al-Adl, Abdul Rahman Al-Maghrebi, And Osama sons Hamza and Abdullah. On the other hand,
according to the 2019 Terrorism Report, the United States Department of State presented the
following report: Tehran has allowed al-Qaeda to transfer money through Iran, as well as to transfer
personnel and resources to war zones such as Afghanistan and Syria.

In recent years, a number of US officials, including former CIA director Mike Pompeo, have accused
the Islamic Republic of Iran of ties to al-Qaeda, citing leaked documents. Therefore, if Saif al-Adl is
chosen as the new leader of this group, it will be a great achievement for the current US President
Biden in involving Iran in the Middle East and in spoiling Iran’s relations with Russia and China. In
addition, with this, the United States, with the cooperation of Britain and the Western community,
will increase other external pressures on Iran.

Moreover, for the Al-Qaeda group, the election of Al-Zawahiri’s son-in-law Abd al-Rahman al-
Maghrebi or Osama’s son Abdullah would be a correct choice. Because Abdul Rahman al-Maghrebi
has spent a lot of time with the second leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, and Al-Maghrebi
knows more about Al-Zawahiri’s policy, foreign relations, and financial resources. The election of
Osama’s son Abdullah as the new leader makes it easier to reduce internal differences and pledge
allegiance because he is the son of the founder of this group, Osama Bin Laden, and is an active
member of the Al-Qaeda group in South Asia. Besides these two people, there are two other active
young people, such as Yazid Mubarak, the leader of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM); and
Ahmad Omar, the leader of al-Shabaab in Somalia.

These four people are between 50 and 52 years old, the four of them remained active in the military
sector of the Al-Qaeda group and some of them remained with the first leader of the Al-Qaeda group
Osama and the second leader Al-Zawahiri and the Al-Qaeda group has full knowledge in foreign
relations and financial sources. Therefore, they are candidates for the new leadership of al-Qaeda.

(9) The future of al-Qaeda

After July 31, 2022, when Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second leader of al-Qaeda, was killed in an
American airstrike in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, al-Qaeda remained in an uncertain position.
Moreover, a big gap has arisen among the Al-Qaeda group, if this gap is not filled, there may be big
cracks and differences in the Al-Qaeda group, because currently the countries of the region are also
trying to bring the jihadist organizations, which are under the umbrella of Al-Qaeda network, under
their control for their political goals. If a leader is appointed for the al-Qaeda group, there are still
many challenges for the new leader to respond positively to those challenges with full success.
Such as, can the next emir of this group, like his previous emirs, attract and invite new fighters for
jihad to this group through the idea of ​​a Jihad among the Muslims of the world? Can the new emir of
this group unite and inspire his former fighters and leading commanders and the new generation of
jihadist?

Can the new emir of this group, like his previous leaders, unite the Jihad organizations operating in
South Asia, the Middle East and Africa under the umbrella of Al-Qaeda?
Will the new leader of this group, like his previous leaders, rely on the Western-backed Gulf countries
in determining the sources of funding, or will he rely on the Eastern alliance in determining his
sources of funding this time?

If the new leader of this group fails to meet even one of these challenges, the Al-Qaeda group will
not only fall into internal differences and will lose the support of its Jihad organizations around the
world, rather, against this group, the war policy of the West with the support of the United States
will be more dangerous and threatening. As in 2011, Ayman al-Zawahiri was elected as the new
leader after the death of the first leader of al-Qaeda, Osama.

In addition, despite Al-Zawahiri’s wisdom and successful policy against foreign Islamist groups, the
Islamic State jihadist group of Iraq separated from Al-Qaeda in 2014. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the
founder of the Islamic State in Iraq, was trained by Saif al-Adl, a prominent member of al-Qaeda, and
this group was formed at Osama’s financial expense for the civil war in Iraq against Saddam Hussein’s
government. In 2004, this group joined al-Qaeda under the leadership of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, but
after the death of Osama, the group separated from al-Qaeda during the leadership of Ayman al-
Zawahiri.

Now, the Al-Shabaab group in East Africa is the leading and largest group in the organizations under
the control of Al-Qaeda, which currently has many fighters and centers in Somalia, Ethiopia and
Kenya. If the gap in the al-Qaeda group is not filled or filled. But, if the leadership of the new leader is
weak, then Al-Shabaab will separate from the al-Qaeda group, just like a few years ago when ISIS
separated from the al-Qaeda group. If this time Al-Shabaab group is separates from Al-Qaeda, so Al-
Shabaab will forget the name of al-Qaeda in the world from the people due to its jihadist reputation
and powerful attacks in East Africa, West Africa, and the Middle East. Like a few years ago, when the
Daesh/ISIS group became so famous for its bloody attacks in Mosul and Raqqa that the world’s
attention shifted from Al-Qaeda to ISIS/ Daesh.

Conclusion

In my opinion, after the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Al-Qaeda group will be ignored by the
international community for a short time until the American presidential elections. Maybe this group
will be out of the scene until the US presidential elections and China’s latest measures against
Taiwan. This was just a perception, on the contrary; the Al-Qaeda network may choose a new leader
for its group as soon as possible and increase its terrorist activities in the Middle East under the
pretext of taking revenge on Al-Zawahiri. Or the rapid terrorist activities of these groups allow the
entry of more American forces to South Asia and the Middle East.

The Middle East and South Asia, especially Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan, will once again become the center of terrorist groups and wars.

Now it depends on the US national security priorities, whether countering terrorism plays a prime role or not, knowing that the US national priorities are somewhat different, since the country focuses on Sea-Line communication, containing China, estranging Russia, securing access to the critical materials, and preserving food and energy supply routes.

Subsequent to the US National Security priorities, the Al-Qaeda will use this opportunity to revamp, rejuvenate, and resurge to pose a significant threat to the west and democracy and western values, hence, a joint task force is needed to comply with the situation, while formulating a practical counterterrorism and Counter Violent Extremism strategy to deal with Jihadi Terrorism challenges.

GSPI does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of GSPI, its staff, or its trustees.