The Impact of the New Syria on Lebanon

Regional Political Shifts and the Start of a New Era

On December 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad fled Syria, marking a pivotal moment in the country’s history and ending the Assad family’s rule, which began with his father in 1971. This exit, resulting from internal unrest, military setbacks, Hezbollah’s recent defeat in its war with Israel, and growing external pressure, enabled Ahmad al-Sharaa, former leader of the Sunni rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to assume leadership. Sharaa’s rise represents a significant shift in Syria’s political landscape, with deep implications for Lebanon, which has been heavily influenced by Syria throughout its history. Under Syria’s new leadership, Lebanon faces both opportunities and risks. 

 Background of Lebanon-Syria Relations

Lebanon and Syria share historical, cultural, and political ties, dating back to their shared history under post WW1 French mandates. Lebanon gained independence in 1943, and Syria followed in 1946. Despite their formal separation, the countries have been intertwined politically and economically, with Syria’s influence over Lebanon peaking during the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990). Syria intervened in 1976, and its military presence grew into a de facto occupation until 2005. The Cedar Revolution, sparked by the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, led to Syria’s military withdrawal, though its political influence persisted, most recently through its alliance with Hezbollah.

Hezbollah and the Gaza War

There is no doubt that Hezbollah’s recent defeat directly affected the balance of power in Syria and the region. Hezbollah has been instrumental in supporting the Assad regime during the Syrian Civil War, providing critical military and logistical aid since 2011. This support, alongside Iranian backing, helped turn the tide in favor of Assad, especially in battles like those in Aleppo and Qusayr. Hezbollah’s forces ensured the stability of regime-held areas and secured vital supply routes between Lebanon, Iran  and Syria, though it came at a high cost in casualties and strain on the group’s resources.

On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah entered war with Israel, upkeeping a “resistance front”  in support of Hamas following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood the day before. Hezbollah is a core part of the “Resistance Axis”, a coalition that includes Iran, the Assad regime, and various militant groups, united by their opposition to Israel, the United States, and Western influence in the Middle East. Hezbollah suffered considerable losses as a result of its entry into the war in support of Gaza. In September 2024, almost a year after initial involvement,  the losses accelerated, starting with Israel’s pager attacks and escalating with mass targeted killings of the group’s leadership and destruction of its infrastructure — causing extensive civilian damage in the process. On September 27, 2024, Israeli forces assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s linchpin and leader for over 30 years. This attack marked a severe blow to the group’s leadership. 

Possible Scenarios for Lebanon’s Future

With Syria under new leadership, Lebanon faces various potential outcomes. Scenario 1 involves a stable Syria under Sharaa. If Sharaa succeeds in stabilizing Syria and integrating it into regional and global systems, Lebanon could benefit economically and politically. Sharaa, with his ties to Sunni regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, could lead Syria toward more moderate, Sunni-dominated governance. A stable Syria would open new opportunities for Lebanon, including the resumption of trade and economic cooperation, which had been hindered by Syria’s isolation under Assad. Syria’s opening to international trade could bring benefits to Lebanon, but rebuilding Syria’s economy would still be a challenge, with Sharaa needing to address economic crises and the after-effects of dictatorship and war.

Since  the Syrian civil war 2011, Lebanon has hosted over two million Syrian refugees. With Assad gone, the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland could alleviate some of Lebanon’s burdens, though it might exacerbate sectarian tensions, especially with minorities loyal to Assad, many of which have fled to Lebanon and elsewhere recently. 

In contrast, scenario 2 implies a  divided Syria and Lebanese Instability. With a sectarian political structure and multiple exogenous loyalties, Lebanon has always been at the mercy of external pressure and influence. If Syria fragments or descends into further chaos, Lebanon would very likely face deepening instability. Lebanon’s sectarian divisions could be further strained by the spillover from Syria’s turmoil. 

 Lebanon’s Uncertain Future

Lebanon continues to grapple with significant challenges, including a fragile ceasefire with Israel that has been repeatedly violated since its establishment in November 2024. The current shift in power allowed Lebanon to elect a government after two years and two months of political deadlock, which was largely driven by Hezbollah’s efforts to block quorum in an attempt to impose its preferred candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, who is an ally of Assad.

Lebanon’s parliament elected Army Commander-in-Chief General Joseph Aoun (the preferred candidate of Saudi Arabia and the United States) as president on January 9, 2025. Aoun’s election came after the ceasefire, with 99 out of 128 parliament votes. While the election of a new government has ignited hope in the country, the road to stability remains uncertain, as Lebanon continues to face deep sectarian political divisions, economic struggles, and the need for urgent reconstruction. The new government will need to navigate these challenges while dealing with the lasting impact of recent conflicts.

Lebanon’s future remains uncertain as it navigates the consequences of Syria’s political shift. The departure of Assad signals a major change in the region. If Sharaa can stabilize Syria, Lebanon could experience economic growth, improved regional relations, and reduced refugee pressures. However, if Syria fractures, Lebanon’s internal divisions could worsen, leading to greater political instability. Hezbollah’s weakening influence and Lebanon’s sectarian divide mean that the country’s political future is likely to be shaped by regional and international dynamics. Whether Lebanon’s stability is ensured by a unified Syria or a fragmented one remains uncertain, but as usual,  regional shifts will undoubtedly play a critical role in Lebanon’s fate.

Amanda Haydar is a Lebanese journalist based in Beirut, focusing on various political, cultural and social issues in Lebanon

GSPI does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of GSPI, its staff, or its trustees.