The role of the Afghan Taliban in regional security

The Afghan Taliban plays a strategic function in regional security as a strong-armed military unit in the region, because currently this group is ruling over a large and regional strategic and geopolitically important country such as Afghanistan and has the full sovereignty of this country under its control. The Afghan Taliban, despite not having internal and international legitimacy and international formality, has developed diplomatic relations with international countries, especially China and Russia.

By: Ajmal Sohail

 Beside seeking clout, the countries’ motive for the establishment of such diplomatic relationship with Taliban is not due to a stable political leadership of the Taliban, rather it is in their interest to minimize the anxiety of insecurity triggered by the group to the neighboring countries including China and Russia. Because the group plays the most important part within the regional security platform. Thus, including the United States and its western associate, and Eastern Alliance led by Sino-Russia are trying to expand collaboration and diplomatic relationship with this group to gain the control of Afghan Taliban.

The Afghan Taliban is the only armed group in the region, which has close ties with score of key international extremist armed organizations, including Al-Qaeda, and has given sanctuary to many global armed radical groups in Afghanistan, namely, Al-Qaeda, IMU, TIP, ISKP and others. The group (Afghan Taliban) the only illegitimate government in the region has about 150,000 heavily armed army, nearly,120,000 policemen and about 12 special open and covert military units incorporating GDI special security units such as Badri 313 which has about 4000 special armed troops. Fateh Force which has approximately 3500 special armed troops, 025 department in GDI which has almost 730 armed troops, General Command of Police Special Unites (GCPSU) which has around 1200 armed troops, Umari Force, which has over 2000 armed troops. The Umari Lashkar or Special Force of Leadership (SFL) which provides security service for the Taliban leader Shaikh Haibatullah and Taliban prominent trailblazers of his radical circle. The unit’s 20000 troops and some of the security components of this unit such as Bodyguards and Cyber security divisions are actively operating incorporation with the Military and Cyberespionage apparatus of Iran supported by China Russia.

Taliban in search of international legitimacy

The leader of the group, Sheikh Haibatullah, and his military commission are currently trying to increase the focus on the political and economic feature as the key regional government in the region, and thus exploit a tactic for international legitimacy and diplomatic contacts. However, the Taliban leadership faces a big impediment caused by the group’s political office in Doha, the capital of Qatar. Since the office turned into a hub for holding secret security meetings between the CIA and the Afghan GDI including DoD.

The political office of the Taliban in Qatar, which is currently under the control and surveillance of the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States, is trying to force the Afghan Taliban to adopt a policy in favor of the United States in the region, especially in South Asia and Afghanistan.

As the United States backed away from supporting the former (20-year-old) republican government. Boldly, the former replicant government sought to embrace a neutral and intermediate policy in the region. Therefore, the United States facilitated the return of the Taliban to power, enabling the group’s advent through the political office of the Afghan Taliban in Doha. Subsequently, they (Afghan Taliban) came to power in Afghanistan for the second time on August 15, 2021.

As soon as they (Afghan Taliban) returned to power in the country, internal disputes and power struggle began among the Afghan Taliban. As a result, the unbreakable radical armed group called the Afghan Taliban was initially divided into two major groups, the Haqqani network led by Sirajuddin Haqqani, and the Afghan Taliban led by Shaikh Malave Haibatullah Akhund.

After about eight months of the group’s governance, in February 2022, the Afghan Taliban was splinted into three other groups, such as the faction of the Taliban’s Minister of Defense Melawi Muhammad Yaqoob Mujahid, which has the chockfull support of the Qatar office, especially, the West led by US. The devotees of the second leader of the Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who wants to adopt an intermediate policy and develop diplomatic and economic relations with the countries of the region. Especially, China and Iran, the neighboring countries of Afghanistan and the extremist circle led by Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Afghan Taliban. This particular splinter is controlled by the Central Administration of Religious Scholars of Pakistan and Iran’s IRGC, enjoying close relations with the Iranian Akhundzads.

Taliban led regime is detrimental in the security Realm

Currently, the countries of the region consider the significance of the Afghan Taliban, in terms of regional security more than ever. Because this group enjoys control across the country, being armed with sophisticated light and heavy weapons, leveraging international terrorist organizations, having extensive access to many land resources and mines, including uranium and lithium. Hence, if the group wants, it can use the setting, either to favor or mischief the regional security. Since, the group does not have international legitimacy and is not bound to any restraints. Consequently, the countries of the region are trying to detach the group from the intelligence conspiracies hurled by the West, expanding political and economic engagement with the Afghan Taliban in the region.

in addition, the countries of the region, especially China, Russia and Iran are trying to deploy their military and espionage units in the Taliban led Afghanistan, in assistance with North Korea to prevent any possible imminent threats posed by the West.

To bolster regional security, the countries of the region especially China and Russia are endeavoring to windup the power struggle within the group so that the Taliban can strengthen its dominance as unitary organization. If the in-group rifts do not end, then the United States or other members of the Western alliance can very easily employ the Taliban against China, Iran and Russia. Letting the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda and other international terrorist groups mushrooming in Afghanistan and region, under auspices of high-ranking Taliban leaders siding the US. That is why China, Russia and Iran are currently giving more attention to the Afghan Taliban than any other country across the world. Promoting the Taliban narrative throughout international summits for the sake of their own security.

Ajmal Sohail is a graduate in terrorism and extremism as well as geopolitical studies from Leiden University in the Netherlands and the University of Maryland in the U.S., He works in as an intelligence analyst and Counter-terrorism expert. He is well connected with both State and non-State players in the regions namely, South Asia, Central Asia, Southeast, Southwest, Middle East and Africa, those physically in and those working from outside alike, allowing him to gain insights into the extremely complex geopolitical situation in Asian regions and African continent. He is co-founder and co-president of the Counter Narco-Terrorism Alliance Germany, directing its intelligence and counter-terrorism portfolios. His analysis and other content can be accessed at http://www.ajmalsohail.com.

GSPI does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of GSPI, its staff, or its trustees.