Turkey latest polls – Kilicdaroglu might win in first round

Polls place Recep Erdogan’s main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu on the verge of getting over 50% in the first round, after another contestant recently left the presidential race.

Predictions now show that on Sunday, Kilicdaroglu might win in the first round with narrowly bellow the 50% threshold.

A poll from KONDA, places Kilicdaroglu at 49.6% and Erdogan at 43.7%, while the two other candidates, nationalist Sinan Ogan and Ince, got 4.8% and 2.2%, respectively.
Metropoll also reported similar findings, with Kilicdaroglu at 49.1% and Erdogan at around 47%. All these calculations on Turkey’s dual election for a president and parliament were made before Ince’s withdrawal so many observers of these elections predict further percentages going to Kilicdaroglu.

Muharrem Ince was endorsed as Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) presidential candidate against Erdogan in 2018 but afterwards he left the CHP to establish his own party. 

Seren Selvin Korkmaz, executive director of IstanPol Institute, said on Halk TV that Ince’s withdrawal may be the critical factor that would lead to the opposition’s win in the first round.

In the meantime, Kilicdaroglu extended an invitation to Ince via a tweet. “It is time to leave behind wounds, I am inviting Ince to Turkey’s table.”

Pundits say that that about half of the people who would have voted for Ince in the first round were likely to vote for Kilicdaroglu in the second round, and 22% for Erdogan but other observers argue that most of Ince’s would be voters, particularly the youth, already have moved their favours towards either Kilicdaroglu or Ogan before Ince’s withdrawal.

As for the parliamentary vote, the polls show that Erdogan’s AKP will be the first party with around 35% to 37% of the share. According to the KONDA survey, Erdogan’s alliance will have  44.0% in the parliamentary vote, ahead of the main opposition alliance at 39.9%.

Metropoll and Turkiye Raporu have similar findings, with around 30% for the CHP as the second largest party group in parliament. Polls give Meral Aksener’s center-right Good Party, the electoral ally of CHP,  between 8% and 10%, making it the third or fourth largest party in parliament.

The Green Left Party (the name the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) entered the elections) is expected to get 9% to 10%. The party and its leftist allies back Kilicdaroglu for the presidential race but have their  own candidates for parliament. Once the parliament is formed, the Green Left and its allies with around 12% are expected to unite against the AKP on important issues.

GSPI